Is Coronavirus as serious as they say?

rifke

bodhisattva

rifke

bodhisattva
Serious question: why do you speak with that corny British affectation? For someone who prides themselves on their vocabulary and writing ability, you consistently trot out these deeply cringey and clumsy turns of phrase that no one with any actual intelligence would ever use in earnest. Is it just because you're like a sad anglophile or whatever?
 

rifke

bodhisattva
I didn't even buy it. It was a gift from Drakes manager, Unlike you, I'm not lying.
also, what am i lying about exactly? when i said that everyone here carries chanel bags? is carrying a chanel bag so unbelievable to you? i mean certainly it seems like you cant believe your own luck about it, but it's not like i claimed everyone here carries diamond clasp hermes bags. i live in the third richest city in canada, lots of asians, people from dubai... its really not that fantastical. and sometimes people will just buy the bag even if everything else they own comes from the gap or whatever. lot of people dont quite get that if you dont own the lifestyle to go along with the bag, you shouldnt own the bag. which is why i would never buy an expensive handbag, though i might buy an expensive item of clothing, so long as it's an artistic brand, like marni (or dries van noten circa 2003), as opposed to a purely status old guard brand, which is what philistines with money typically wear.
 

born to mourn and yawn

Well-Known Member
brett weinstein talks here about the absolute risk reduction of the vaccines. the whole idea of the vaccines being 95% effective or whatever is based on the assumption that 100 out of 100 people not vaccinated will get covid and that is egregiously false.

Thanks for the video, even though the lady was clearly at a loss explaining her data and the guy wasn't really willing (able?) to do her job, so he just came up with his conclusions which "coincidentially" matched his agenda.

But there is something to learn from the material anyways, namely that the pharma industry prefers talking about a drug's efficacy (Relative number) by only looking at the infected people. One person of 100 gets sick in the vaccinated group, and two in the placebo (unvaccinated) group. So, the drug is 50% efficient. But the interesting point is of course that only two out of 100 people get sick anyway, so the infection risk is 2%.
With the flu, btw, the average infection rate is 2-5%, and this number is based on pre-covid times when people didn't wear masks, etc.

There is an online risk-calculator by the Max-Planck-Institut which allows you to calculate your personal risk of getting corona infected in specific situations with one infected person present: https://www.mpic.de/4747361/risk-calculator (only in German)

So, for example, you can type in if or what mask the person is wearing, how long you've been there, whether you deal with a virus-mutation, how often they are airing the room, etc.

One example: Supermarket, the infected person only wears a cloth face mask, almost no airing possible, 30 people present, virus-mutation, and some infectious folks were in the room before:

The likelihood a specific person gets infected is 0,021 %, the likelihood that at least one gets infected is 0.63%.

When the person is a superspreader, the percentage gets up to 6.1%.

At a party with 30 people, and no superspreader, the percentage is 20%.

Interestingly enough, the numbers are rising dramatically for offices and classrooms, even though airing is possible there.

With folks not wearing masks any longer after having been double-jabbed, the infection rate would go up to even 95% in the worst case scenario.

*****

edit:
I have to spin this a bit further.

One thing the guy in the video said was that we need to find out if the risk-value calculation works out for us personally. The "risk" for him is the possible danger of the vaccine (which, according to him, is downplayed) and the value is what we personally gain from being jabbed. I would say the "value" part also includes our personal "risk for infection". The lower our personal risk for infection or getting seriously sick, the lesser the value of a vaccination. That's probably the reason why the personal risk for infection for unvaccinated people is not made transparent enough. At least this is my impression.

There are other factors too that influence the "value" of a vaccination for us, which are not really personal but more community oriented, if we perceive ourselves as soldiers in a medical war against the virus, for example. "You might die, but thanks for your contribution, brave soldier at the home front."
 
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Light Housework

lazy painter
It's not looking good for us unvaccinated. The pressure keeps mounting to get jabbed. I watch the mainstream media and it's frightening, seeing our health authority figure Bonnie Henry say we ALL have to get the vaccines.
 

Hovis Lesley

Well-Known Member
Having first said that ‘passports’ would be required for nightclubs only. Then nightclubs and sports venues with more than 20k in attendance only. Then nightclubs, stadiums and universities only. Dominic Rabb has just said the government is now looking to extend the passport scheme to ‘other venues’. So we’ll need one to get in anywhere basically.
 
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born to mourn and yawn

Well-Known Member
Trudeau is saying we all must get vaccinated for others, if not for ourselves. We're getting scapegoated.
Now that we know that the viral load is almost the same in infected vaccinated and infected unvaccinated folks, herd immunity (the belief that getting vaccinated is beneficial for the sake of the population) is eventually off the table.

Let's see how long it will take for this knowledge to be reflected by our politicians and the government. I would say probably one to three weeks.
 

born to mourn and yawn

Well-Known Member
I would like to clarify this again, because for me looking at these numbers from the CDC leakage and then coming to my own conclusions (not those of the media) has really relieved me of a heavy burden...
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But I had to do a little bit of maths myself, because nobody else does, strangely enough.

I assume that these CDC numbers are correct and more or less reflect the behaviour of the presently dominant delta variant world-wide.

Correct me if I am wrong, but

every week,

1) per 100,000 people, only 200 people (vaccinated and unvaccinated) will test positive and show covid19 symptoms. That's 0,2% of the population in the US. Of those 200, appr. 179 are unvaccinated and appr. 21 are vaccinated.

2) per 100,000 people, appr. only 2,53 people (v and uv) will be hospitalized with covid 19 symptoms. That's
0,00253 % of the population (I mean, is this really true? Such a low percentage?). Of those hospitalized, appr. roughly 2-3 are unvaccinated, and almost none (0,1 person) is vaccinated.

3) per 100,000 people, appr. 1 person (unvaxxed) will die. That's 0,001% of the population.

Would someone please slap my face and tell me that I have miscalculated something?

In the face of these numbers, why should I worry about the fact that the delta variant comes in a viral load that is similar to smallpox? Why should I worry about long covid?
 

Light Housework

lazy painter
I would like to clarify this again, because for me looking at these numbers from the CDC leakage and then coming to my own conclusions (not those of the media) has really relieved me of a heavy burden...
View attachment 75026

But I had to do a little bit of maths myself, because nobody else does, strangely enough.

I assume that these CDC numbers are correct and more or less reflect the behaviour of the presently dominant delta variant world-wide.

Correct me if I am wrong, but

every week,

1) per 100,000 people, only 200 people (vaccinated and unvaccinated) will test positive and show covid19 symptoms. That's 0,2% of the population in the US. Of those 200, appr. 179 are unvaccinated and appr. 21 are vaccinated.

2) per 100,000 people, appr. only 2,53 people (v and uv) will be hospitalized with covid 19 symptoms. That's
0,00253 % of the population (I mean, is this really true? Such a low percentage?). Of those hospitalized, appr. roughly 2-3 are unvaccinated, and almost none (0,1 person) is vaccinated.

3) per 100,000 people, appr. 1 person (unvaxxed) will die. That's 0,001% of the population.

Would someone please slap my face and tell me that I have miscalculated something?

In the face of these numbers, why should I worry about the fact that the delta variant comes in a viral load that is similar to smallpox? Why should I worry about long covid?
I know. People are hysterical. It's embarrassing, at best, and alarming at worst.
 
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